Stem cell's shell game?

The biggest question surrounding stem cell research in California right now isn_t whether it will eventually cure devastating health problems. It_s what happened to the billion dollars.

When California voters approved Proposition 71 last year, critics say, it was partially on the promise that their $3 billion investment in stem cell research would provide a financial payoff to the state. Supporters cited a study that claimed California could get a payback of anywhere between $537 million and $1.1 billion from royalties and licensing from intellectual property, or IP, as it is known in the investment community.

Actually, the figures were never written into the law that voters approved--the latest surprise disclosure surrounding the controversial initiative. And the study itself was financed by the backers of Proposition 71.

That means perhaps $1 billion or more that many expected Proposition 71 to provide to California may not be coming, after all. The numbers came from a September 2004 analysis produced by Dr. Laurence Baker, an associate professor of the Stanford University School of Medicine, and Bruce Deal, managing partner of the Analysis...