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"Human Genetics Calendar 2000 to 2040" by Corporate Futurist Joseph Coates

Genetic Crossroads
August 4th, 2000

A conference called "Humans and Genetic Engineering in the New Millenium—

How are we going to get `Gen-Ethics' just in time?" was held in November
1999 by the Danish Council of Ethics and Copenhagen University. Three
papers prepared for that conference, by Joseph Coates, Lee Silver, and
Darren Shickle, have now been published and are available on-line at
<http://www.etiskraad.dk/publikationer/genethics/ren.htm>.

Coates' paper begins, "The reality must be faced squarely that we are
the first species to be able to directly intervene in shaping its own
evolution….Our choice is not yes or no. Our choice is to intelligently
or stupidly manage that capability." He ends with "an anticipated
calendar of events on the immediate genetic horizon." Here are excerpts:

2000-2015 Expanding knowledge of multiple gene interactions and the
associated disorders…

2007-2025 Upper middle class are first into genetic enhancement,
that is, elimination of nonmedical or nuisance conditions—
overweight, short stature, etc….

2025 Growth in genetic servicing doubles every three years in
the United States. By 2022, 65% of children are genetically
serviced, 95% of them for diseases or disorders and 5% for
enhancement. 12% of interventions alter the germ line.

2028 Enhanced people are starting to form social groups and
affinity groups….MENSA has a rapidly growing subgroup
called MENSA-E for those with IQs above 160. The Inter-
national Olympics Committee is discussing a special Olympics
for the physically enhanced…

2035 The anti-genetics movement has 16 million registered members
(Americans for God's Way) and enjoy support by 27% of adults…

2038 Citizens refusing to have a genetic inventory of their minor
children under the Olsen Act will have their taxes raised by
30% and be double billed for genetically-based disorders when
their children are treated for them.

Coates is a principal of Coates & Jarratt, whose slogan is "The Future
is Our Business." The firm has worked for "44 of Fortune's 1999 top
100 companies," as well as the American Association for the Advancement
of Science, Sandia National Laboratories, the US EPA, the CIA, and the
National Security Agency. See <http://coatesandjarratt.com>.


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